Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for INGRID-13 in Mexico from 13 Sep 2013 15:00 UTC to 16 Sep 2013 21:00 UTC

16 Sep 2013 21 UTC

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Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone INGRID-13 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (16 Sep 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	158 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	12 Sep 2013 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
2	13 Sep 2013 03:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
3	13 Sep 2013 09:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
4	13 Sep 2013 15:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
5	13 Sep 2013 21:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
6	14 Sep 2013 00:00	121	No people	No people	Mexico
7	14 Sep 2013 03:00	130	No people	890 thousand	Mexico
8	14 Sep 2013 09:00	130	No people	920 thousand	Mexico
9	14 Sep 2013 15:00	130	No people	1.1 million	Mexico
10	14 Sep 2013 21:00	138	No people	1 million	Mexico
11	15 Sep 2013 03:00	158	No people	330 thousand	Mexico
12	15 Sep 2013 09:00	158	No people	310 thousand	Mexico
13	15 Sep 2013 15:00	130	No people	60 thousand	Mexico
14	15 Sep 2013 21:00	121	No people	30 thousand	Mexico
15	16 Sep 2013 03:00	121	No people	20 thousand	Mexico
16	16 Sep 2013 09:00	121	No people	140 thousand	Mexico
17	16 Sep 2013 15:00	93	No people	20 thousand	Mexico
18	16 Sep 2013 21:00	56	No people	20 thousand

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	9/12/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.7, -93.6
2	9/13/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.7, -94
3	9/13/2013 9:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.7, -94.5
4	9/13/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	19.4, -95.3	Mexico
5	9/13/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.6 million people	19.2, -95.4	Mexico
6	9/14/2013	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.6 million people	19.2, -95.3	Mexico
7	9/14/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.4 million people	19.3, -95.2	Mexico
8	9/14/2013 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	93	no people	2900 people	19.8, -95	Mexico
9	9/14/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	20.6, -94.5
10	9/14/2013 9:00:00 PM	Category 1	121	no people	no people	21.3, -94.4
11	9/15/2013 3:00:00 AM	Category 1	138	no people	no people	22, -95
12	9/15/2013 9:00:00 AM	Category 1	138	no people	no people	22.4, -95.4
13	9/15/2013 3:00:00 PM	Category 1	121	no people	<1000 people	22.5, -95.8	Mexico
14	9/15/2013 9:00:00 PM	Category 1	121	no people	14000 people	22.7, -96.3	Mexico
15	9/16/2013 3:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	no people	840000 people	23.1, -96.5	Mexico
16	9/16/2013 9:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	18000 people	1.5 million people	23.4, -97.1	Mexico
17	9/16/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	93	no people	890000 people	23.8, -98.2	Mexico
18	9/16/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23.7, -99	Mexico
18	9/17/2013 6:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	47	no people	no people	23.5, -100	Mexico
19	9/17/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	23.7, -100	Mexico

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Nuevo Leon
Mexico	San Luis Potosi
Mexico	Tamaulipas
Mexico	Veracruz

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Veracruz	Veracruz	Mexico	Major city	560000 people
Ciudad Victoria	Tamaulipas	Mexico	Major city	-
Tampico	Tamaulipas	Mexico	Major city	310000 people
Alvarado	Veracruz	Mexico	City	21000 people
Tiacotalpan	Veracruz	Mexico	City	-
Catemaco	Veracruz	Mexico	City	24000 people
Santiago Tuxtla	Veracruz	Mexico	City	16000 people
San Andrés Tuxtla	Veracruz	Mexico	City	-
Cosamaloapan	Veracruz	Mexico	City	29000 people
Ciudada Mante	Tamaulipas	Mexico	City	-
Cuauhtemoc	Tamaulipas	Mexico	City	5600 people
Abasolo	Tamaulipas	Mexico	City	6700 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in La Pesca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2013 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (104 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 16 Sep 2013 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Sep 2013 13:00	La Pesca	Mexico	0.7
	16 Sep 2013 12:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	0.6
	16 Sep 2013 13:00	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.5
	16 Sep 2013 13:00	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.5
	16 Sep 2013 14:00	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2013 12:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2013 20:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.3
	16 Sep 2013 20:00	Palacios	United States	0.3
	16 Sep 2013 14:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Country Acres Colonia	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Estes	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Rockport	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Copano Village	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Fulton	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Spanish Village	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 11:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 11:00	Laguna Vista	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 11:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 11:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 11:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 10:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 20:00	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 19:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Nadeau	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Texas City	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Flake	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 23:00	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 18:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 10:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 18:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Matagorda	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 18:00	Chinquapin	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Surfside	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	14 Sep 2013 21:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 21:00	Haltunchen	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 21:00	Seybaplaya	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Valasco Heights	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Freeport	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Mims	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Port Morris	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 20:00	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 07:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 02:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	Agua Dulce	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 00:00	Gulf Park	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Sea Isle	United States	0.1
	17 Sep 2013 03:00	Galveston	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	High Island	United States	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 03:00	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 00:00	Balantanche	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 02:00	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 21:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 04:00	Sisal	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 04:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Quintana	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 20:00	Patton	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Caplen	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 21:00	Gilchrist	United States	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 16:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 19:00	Bryan Beach	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 22:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 22:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 22:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 02:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 02:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 03:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 00:00	Noham	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 23:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 23:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 00:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 22:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 22:00	Cameron	United States	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 03:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2013 03:00	Alvarado	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2013 15:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.1